Rather than spending three years on one company, create ten in one year: The emerging design philosophy of high turnover

When you try to increase the probability, it slows down.

Trying to increase the success probability of a single attempt leads to more research, more meetings, and delays in getting started. And by the exact amount of that delay, the market moves and the premises fall apart.

Efforts to improve accuracy often turn into the task of gathering reasons not to start.

In the first place, you never know beforehand whether a business will succeed or not. Trying to figure out the unknowable is the most expensive waste of time there is.

Look at the total amount, not the expected value per item.

If you look at them one by one, eight out of ten companies won't survive. Even so, that's fine, because by increasing the turnover rate, even if the expected value per case is low, you will surpass them in total volume and learning speed.

The important thing is for failures to be cheap and quick, not to avoid failure. Betting all resources and three years on a single endeavor yields a huge return if it hits, but leaves no next chance if it misses. By assuming iteration, a miss simply becomes part of the process.

The fact that the cost of verification has dropped

It is only in the last few years that this type of design has become viable. Market research, business model drafting, presentations, initial products, and pricing estimation. Processes that once cost millions of yen and took several months have been reduced by AI to just a few days and tens of thousands of yen, lowering the marginal cost to the absolute minimum.

What fell was not the production cost. The throwaway price fell.

When the cost of failure drops, the number of things you can try increases. When the number of things you can try increases, what matters is not the probability of hitting the jackpot, but the total number of times you encounter one.

High RPM makes learning compound.

A person who has been through ten companies gains the market sense of ten experiences. They know what won't sell, where people lose interest, and which contracts will cause issues later on. This is the kind of knowledge you cannot acquire by spending three years at a single company. Of course, there are also experiences and emotions that can only be gained by spending three years at one company. What matters are the new insights and materials that expand one's perspective, so even if the business itself fails, the scars of judgment remain. That repetition increases the success rate of the next company's venture.

Three prerequisites for increasing rotation

First, templating. Standardizing registration, contracts, accounting, and the initial website into templates to reduce the cost of thinking to the absolute minimum.

Second, the externalization of judgment. Letting AI handle design and verification, while humans concentrate on judging "where to place things" and making the final decision.

Third, pre-designing the exit. Deciding before starting under what conditions to sell, and under what conditions to fold.

It is different from doing a sloppy job

High revving is not about sloppy craftsmanship, nor is it about justifying and structuring flight as a way to quickly escape. There is no room for debate that confronting suffering in a situation where escape routes are blocked deepens human thought and creates human depth.

Looking at it from that perspective, since the exit criteria are determined in advance, discipline actually becomes stricter. Resisting while still sensing potential, even while being aware of approaching the line where withdrawal is mandatory, is a valuable experience that deepens self-dialogue.

When someone without standards increases their rotation speed, it simply ends in a mess, yielding only shallow insights that never deepen. Because the experiential value gained from such shallow thinking is low, its precision as a weapon to carry over to the next endeavor is also diminished.

What sustains the rotation is not momentum, but form and standards. Without these two, simply increasing the numbers will not accumulate learning.

The era of starting late and holding on for a long time has quietly ended.

There is no need to feel a sense of discomfort and struggle with the simple romanticization of persistence.

Put it down quickly, let go of it quickly, and put it down again.

This is a new form of challenge that has become possible precisely because of this era.

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